Ethiopia's Quest for Sea Access Promotes Regional Security, Shared Prosperity

Ethiopia, the world's most populous landlocked nation, is actively pursuing secure access to the sea, a strategic imperative framed as crucial for its economic growth and national security. This article examines the legal and geopolitical dimensions of Ethiopia's quest, particularly in light of international law governing landlocked states and recent diplomatic initiatives. While international conventions, such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), affirm the right of landlocked states to access the sea, the practical implementation hinges on bilateral or regional agreements that respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of transit states. The article analyzes how Ethiopia's pursuit, if conducted within established legal frameworks and through cooperative regional engagement, can foster shared prosperity and enhance regional security across the Horn of Africa, rather than exacerbate existing tensions.

Ethiopia, a nation of over 120 million people, finds itself in a unique geopolitical position as the world's most populous landlocked country. Its aspiration for secure and diversified access to the sea is not merely an economic convenience but is increasingly articulated as an existential necessity for its sustained development and national security. This pursuit has gained significant diplomatic momentum, with senior parliamentarians and government officials emphasizing its potential to contribute to regional security, economic cooperation, and shared prosperity across the volatile Horn of Africa.

The historical context reveals Ethiopia's long-standing connection to maritime trade, dating back to the Axumite Empire, underscoring that sea access has historically been central to its statecraft and survival. The loss of direct coastal access following Eritrea's independence in 1993 left Ethiopia reliant on neighboring ports, primarily Djibouti, for over 90% of its international trade. This article delves into the international legal framework underpinning the rights of landlocked states, scrutinizes Ethiopia's recent diplomatic maneuvers, and assesses the intricate balance between national interest, international law, and regional stability in the Horn of Africa.

The international legal framework governing the rights of landlocked states to access the sea is primarily enshrined in Part X of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Article 125 of UNCLOS explicitly grants landlocked states the right of access to and from the sea for the purpose of exercising rights related to the freedom of the high seas and the common heritage of mankind. To this end, landlocked states are entitled to freedom of transit through the territory of transit states by all means of transport. However, the terms and modalities for exercising this freedom of transit are to be agreed upon between the landlocked states and transit states through bilateral, subregional, or regional agreements. Importantly, transit states, in exercising full sovereignty over their territory, retain the right to take all necessary measures to ensure that these transit rights do not infringe upon their legitimate interests.

Ethiopia, having signed UNCLOS in 1982 and ratified it in 2012, theoretically benefits from these provisions, although it appears to not have deposited its instrument of ratification with the UN Secretary-General, meaning the Convention is not formally in force for it. Nevertheless, the principles articulated in UNCLOS are widely recognized as customary international law. Currently, Ethiopia predominantly relies on the Port of Djibouti, facilitated by agreements such as the 1994 Djibouti Port Utilization Agreement and a 2006 multi-modal transport agreement, which grant Ethiopia permanent access and transit rights. Regional bodies like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) also play a significant role in promoting peace, security, and economic integration in the Horn of Africa, often through initiatives aimed at enhancing cross-border infrastructure and trade.

Ethiopia's recent diplomatic efforts to secure additional sea access have brought to the forefront the complexities of international law, particularly concerning sovereignty and territorial integrity. A notable development was the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on January 1, 2024, between Ethiopia and the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland. This MoU reportedly involves a lease of 19-20 kilometers of Somaliland's coastline for commercial and military purposes for 50 years, in exchange for Ethiopia's potential recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. This agreement, however, is not a legally binding treaty and has been met with strong condemnation from Somalia, which views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory and considers the MoU a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The legality of the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU is highly contentious under international law. While Ethiopia asserts its right to negotiate maritime access under UNCLOS Article 125, the capacity of an unrecognized entity like Somaliland to enter into such agreements, particularly those involving territorial leases and potential recognition, raises significant questions. Somalia's consistent rejection of Somaliland's independence and its territorial claims mean that any agreement with Somaliland that is perceived to undermine Somalia's sovereignty is likely to be challenged and could destabilize regional relations. The African Union, for instance, has unequivocally reaffirmed its commitment to preserving the unity, territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty of all its member states.

Despite the controversy, the pursuit of secure sea access is undeniably vital for Ethiopia's economic future. Diversifying port access beyond Djibouti, while critical for reducing dependency and enhancing trade competitiveness, must be achieved through legally sound and mutually agreeable frameworks. The establishment of initiatives like the Djibouti-Ethiopia-South Sudan-Uganda (DESSU) Corridor Authority, formalized through inter-state agreements, exemplifies a cooperative approach to enhancing regional connectivity and trade. Such multilateral or bilateral agreements, respecting the sovereignty of all parties, align with the spirit of UNCLOS Part X, which encourages states to agree on transit modalities through subregional or regional arrangements.

Ultimately, the long-term success of Ethiopia's quest for sea access in promoting regional security and shared prosperity hinges on adherence to international law and robust diplomatic engagement. While the economic benefits of diversified access are clear, any perceived unilateral actions or agreements that disregard the territorial integrity of recognized states risk escalating tensions and undermining the very regional stability that Ethiopia aims to foster. The recent Ankara Declaration, where Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to end their dispute over Ethiopia's port plan by seeking access under Somalia's sovereignty, suggests a potential shift towards a more internationally compliant approach, though the status of the Somaliland MoU remains unclear.

Ethiopia's pursuit of secure and diversified sea access is a legitimate national interest, deeply rooted in its economic development needs and historical maritime engagement. International law, particularly UNCLOS Part X, provides a framework for landlocked states to achieve this access through cooperative agreements with transit states. However, the implementation of such rights must be meticulously navigated within the bounds of international legal principles, especially those concerning state sovereignty and territorial integrity.

For legal practitioners advising clients with interests in the Horn of Africa, it is imperative to monitor the evolving diplomatic landscape and the legal status of agreements related to sea access. The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU serves as a critical case study illustrating the complexities and potential pitfalls when such agreements are perceived to infringe upon the sovereignty of a recognized state. Future developments will likely emphasize the need for comprehensive, multilateral, or bilateral agreements that are not only economically beneficial but also legally robust and respectful of existing international norms and regional stability mechanisms, such as those promoted by IGAD. Adherence to these principles will be paramount in transforming Ethiopia's quest for sea access into a genuine catalyst for regional security and shared prosperity.