France, Spain and allies say EU must stick to pro-electric car policy

France, Spain, and five allied Member States have reportedly formed a blocking minority within the Council of the European Union, signaling their intent to uphold the EU's ambitious pro-electric car policy. This development is crucial for the future of the automotive sector, as it could prevent any attempts to dilute the legally binding target of 100% CO2 emission reduction for new cars and vans by 2035, a cornerstone of the EU's 'Fit for 55' climate package. The blocking minority leverages the Qualified Majority Voting rules, ensuring that significant legislative changes to this policy would require broad consensus, thereby reinforcing regulatory certainty for the transition to zero-emission mobility.

The European Union's commitment to climate neutrality by 2050 has driven a series of transformative legislative initiatives, most notably the 'Fit for 55' package. A central pillar of this ambitious agenda is the Regulation on CO2 emission standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, which mandates a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions by 2035, effectively phasing out the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This policy has been a subject of intense debate, with some Member States and industry stakeholders advocating for greater flexibility, particularly concerning the role of e-fuels and hybrid technologies beyond the stipulated deadline.

In a significant development, France, Spain, and five other allied European nations have reportedly coalesced to form a blocking minority within the Council of the European Union. This strategic alignment aims to safeguard the integrity of the existing pro-electric car policy, resisting any proposals that might weaken the 2035 zero-emission target. For legal professionals, this signals a critical juncture in EU environmental and industrial policy, highlighting the intricate interplay of national interests, climate objectives, and the procedural mechanisms of EU lawmaking. The ability of this coalition to wield a blocking minority underscores the enduring power of Member States to shape the Union's legislative trajectory, particularly on issues with profound economic and societal implications.

The legal framework underpinning the EU's automotive decarbonisation strategy is primarily enshrined in Regulation (EU) 2019/631, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2023/851. These regulations set stringent CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and vans, with interim targets leading to a definitive 100% reduction target by 2035. This 2035 target is a cornerstone of the broader 'Fit for 55' package, which seeks to align EU climate and energy legislation with the Union's goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and achieving climate neutrality by 2050.

Decisions in the Council of the European Union on most legislative matters are taken by Qualified Majority Voting (QMV), as stipulated in Article 16 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) and Article 238 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). Under the current QMV rules, a proposal is adopted if at least 55% of the Member States vote in favour (representing at least 15 out of 27 Member States), and these Member States represent at least 65% of the total EU population. Conversely, a blocking minority can be formed if at least four Member States, representing more than 35% of the EU population, vote against a proposal. This mechanism ensures that a significant minority of countries and populations can prevent the adoption of legislation, even if a simple majority is in favour.

The formation of a blocking minority by France, Spain, and their allies holds significant legal and policy implications for the EU's automotive sector. Recent discussions have seen proposals, notably from the European Commission, to potentially ease the 2035 ban on new ICE vehicles. These proposals suggest a shift from a 100% CO2 emission reduction target to a 90% reduction by 2035, with the remaining 10% potentially offset by the use of low-carbon steel, e-fuels, and biofuels. Such an amendment, if adopted, would allow for the continued sale of certain plug-in hybrids, range extenders, mild hybrids, and even pure ICE vehicles beyond 2035, provided they meet the revised emission compensation criteria.

The legal effect of the blocking minority is to prevent the adoption of any such diluting amendments to Regulation (EU) 2023/851, provided these amendments require a qualified majority vote in the Council. By mustering the requisite number of Member States and population share, France and Spain, along with their five allies, can effectively veto any legislative proposal that seeks to roll back the 100% zero-emission target. This procedural leverage provides regulatory certainty for manufacturers who have already committed substantial investments towards full electrification, in line with the original 2035 deadline.

However, the situation also highlights potential contradictions within the EU's climate policy. While the 'Fit for 55' package aims for a clear trajectory towards decarbonisation, the debate around e-fuels and hybrid technologies reflects a tension between environmental ambition and industrial flexibility. The blocking minority's stance reinforces the original, more stringent interpretation of the 2035 target, potentially limiting the scope for alternative technological pathways that some Member States and automotive companies might prefer. This dynamic underscores the complex political economy of EU climate policy, where national industrial interests, technological innovation, and environmental imperatives constantly intersect. The ongoing review clause in the regulation, which mandates the European Commission to evaluate its effectiveness by 2026, will be a critical juncture where these tensions could resurface.

The emergence of a blocking minority committed to upholding the EU's pro-electric car policy by maintaining the 2035 zero-emission target for new vehicles is a pivotal development for legal practitioners in the automotive, energy, and environmental sectors. For manufacturers, this coalition provides a degree of reinforced regulatory certainty, signaling that the current ambitious targets are unlikely to be easily diluted. This certainty is crucial for long-term investment planning in electric vehicle production, battery technology, and charging infrastructure across Europe.

Practitioners should closely monitor future legislative proposals from the European Commission, particularly those arising from the 2026 review of Regulation (EU) 2023/851, and any subsequent voting dynamics within the Council. The ability of this blocking minority to sustain its position will dictate whether the EU maintains a firm, technology-specific path towards electrification or if alternative, more flexible approaches incorporating e-fuels and advanced hybrids gain traction. The outcome will have profound implications for compliance strategies, supply chain development, and the overall pace of the green transition in the European automotive industry.