Nigeria’s trade surplus rises 91% to  N7.55trn in Q1’26

Nigeria recorded a significant 91% year-on-year increase in its trade surplus to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, a substantial rise from N3.95 trillion in Q1 2025. This surge, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), was primarily driven by a sharp decline in imports and a modest but impactful rise in exports. The legal and regulatory landscape underpinning this economic shift involves the interplay of customs legislation, foreign exchange policies, and export promotion frameworks. This article examines the statutory and policy drivers behind this trade performance, including the implications of the Nigeria Customs Service Act 2023, Central Bank of Nigeria's foreign exchange reforms, and the ongoing implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for legal practitioners navigating Nigeria's evolving trade environment.

Nigeria's external trade performance in the first quarter of 2026 marked a significant milestone, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting a remarkable 91% year-on-year increase in the trade surplus, reaching N7.55 trillion. This substantial improvement from N3.95 trillion in Q1 2025 was largely attributed to a notable decline in imports and a concurrent, albeit modest, rise in exports. The data underscores a pivotal shift in Nigeria's economic trajectory, moving towards a more favourable balance of trade, which has profound implications for various sectors of the economy and the legal professionals advising businesses operating within it.

The legal framework governing trade in Nigeria is multifaceted, primarily anchored by legislation such as the Nigeria Customs Service Act 2023, which replaced the long-standing Customs and Excise Management Act (CEMA). This Act regulates the management and collection of customs and excise duties, import and export procedures, and establishes the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) as the lead agency for border control and revenue collection. Complementing this is the Nigerian Export Promotion Council Act, which established the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) to promote the development and diversification of Nigeria's export trade and export-oriented industries. Furthermore, the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC) Act encourages and promotes investments, including those in export-oriented sectors.

The observed decline in imports in Q1 2026, which fell by 18.17% from Q1 2025, can be directly linked to recent policy interventions, particularly those concerning foreign exchange management and domestic production capacity. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been instrumental in unifying the foreign exchange market and lifting restrictions on sourcing foreign exchange for certain imported items, a policy shift that began in 2023. While intended to improve market liquidity and transparency, the devaluation of the Naira following these reforms has made imports more expensive, thereby contributing to their decline. Additionally, increased domestic refining capacity for petroleum products has significantly reduced the import bill for refined fuels, a major component of Nigeria's import basket. The Nigeria Customs Service Act 2023, with its focus on modernizing customs administration, digital assessment, and stricter compliance, also plays a role in streamlining import processes and potentially deterring non-essential imports through efficient duty collection.

Conversely, the modest rise in exports, particularly crude oil and other petroleum products, has been a key driver of the surplus. The NEPC, under its enabling Act, actively promotes export diversification and provides incentives, which, alongside the government's broader trade policy objectives outlined in the Draft Trade Policy of Nigeria 2023-2027, aim to boost non-oil exports. Nigeria's commitment to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), ratified in 2020, also presents significant opportunities for expanding intra-African trade and diversifying export markets, with ongoing efforts to operationalize its provisions. Legal practitioners must therefore be adept at navigating the complexities of AfCFTA rules of origin, tariff concessions, and dispute resolution mechanisms to leverage these opportunities for their clients.

The legal implications for businesses are substantial. Importers face increased compliance burdens under the Nigeria Customs Service Act 2023, including mandatory declarations, post-clearance audits, and severe penalties for non-compliance. The volatility and unification of the foreign exchange market necessitate careful financial planning and risk management for businesses engaged in international trade. Exporters, on the other hand, may find enhanced support through NEPC initiatives and the broader market access afforded by AfCFTA, requiring legal advice on trade agreements, intellectual property protection in new markets, and international contract law. The shift towards domestic production also opens avenues for foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing and agriculture, governed by the NIPC Act, which guarantees investment protection and repatriation of funds.

Nigeria's impressive trade surplus in Q1 2026 signals a dynamic and evolving trade landscape, shaped by deliberate policy choices and legislative reforms. For legal practitioners, this necessitates a proactive approach to understanding and advising clients on the intricate web of customs regulations, foreign exchange policies, and international trade agreements. The Nigeria Customs Service Act 2023 and the CBN's FX reforms demand heightened compliance and strategic financial planning from importers, while the NEPC Act and AfCFTA offer avenues for export growth and diversification.

Practitioners should closely monitor the implementation of the Draft Trade Policy of Nigeria 2023-2027 and further developments in AfCFTA protocols, as these will continue to shape market access and regulatory requirements. Advising on robust compliance frameworks, mitigating foreign exchange risks, and identifying opportunities in export-oriented industries and local manufacturing will be crucial. The ability to navigate these legal and economic shifts will be paramount for businesses seeking to thrive in Nigeria's increasingly self-reliant and export-focused economy.