Truth about Tinubu’s economic performance 2023 to 2025

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration, from 2023 to 2025, has initiated a series of far-reaching legal and regulatory reforms aimed at restructuring Nigeria's economic landscape. Key among these are the removal of the long-standing fuel subsidy, significant overhauls in foreign exchange management, and a comprehensive restructuring of the national tax regime through the Finance Act 2023 and the subsequent 2025 Tax Reform Acts. These legislative and policy shifts, underpinned by existing statutes like the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and the Central Bank of Nigeria Act 2007, seek to enhance fiscal sustainability, attract investment, and streamline regulatory processes. While these reforms promise long-term economic stability, they have introduced new compliance burdens and legal considerations for businesses and individuals operating within Nigeria.

The period spanning 2023 to 2025 has witnessed a seismic shift in Nigeria's economic policy, largely driven by the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration's ambitious reform agenda. Upon assuming office, President Tinubu swiftly moved to dismantle long-standing economic distortions, notably the petrol subsidy and the multi-tiered foreign exchange system. These bold pronouncements were not merely policy statements but have been systematically translated into a complex web of legal and regulatory instruments, fundamentally altering the operational environment for businesses and legal professionals across the nation.

This article delves into the core legal developments underpinning these economic reforms, examining the statutory enactments, regulatory directives, and their practical implications for legal practice. From the Petroleum Industry Act's latent provisions on subsidy removal to the Central Bank of Nigeria's aggressive monetary policy adjustments and the sweeping tax reforms encapsulated in the Finance Act 2023 and the 2025 Tax Reform Acts, the administration has embarked on a path of significant legal restructuring. For legal practitioners, understanding these evolving frameworks is crucial for advising clients, ensuring compliance, and navigating the new economic realities in Nigeria.

The foundation for many of the Tinubu administration's economic reforms was laid by previous legislative efforts, notably the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021. The PIA 2021, enacted prior to the current administration, contained provisions for the deregulation of petroleum product pricing and the eventual removal of fuel subsidies, though its implementation in this regard had been suspended. This pre-existing legal framework provided a statutory basis for President Tinubu's declaration on May 29, 2023, that the fuel subsidy was "gone," a move that immediately triggered significant economic adjustments across the country.

Similarly, Nigeria's tax landscape has been subject to continuous reform, with successive Finance Acts preceding the current administration. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), operating under the Central Bank of Nigeria Act 2007 and the Banks and Other Financial Institutions Act (BOFIA) 2020, has historically exercised broad powers over monetary policy and foreign exchange management. However, the period leading up to 2023 was characterized by a complex, multi-window foreign exchange system and persistent inflationary pressures, necessitating a more unified and market-driven approach. These existing legal and economic contexts form the backdrop against which the Tinubu administration's specific legal and regulatory interventions have been introduced.

The Tinubu administration's economic performance from 2023 to 2025 is largely defined by three pillars of legal and regulatory reform: fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange market liberalization, and comprehensive tax restructuring. The removal of the fuel subsidy, announced on May 29, 2023, leveraged the dormant provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which had already mandated the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector. This executive action, while having immediate economic repercussions, aligned with the PIA's objective of fostering a competitive downstream market and reducing fiscal burdens.

In the realm of foreign exchange, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) initiated significant reforms in June 2023 by unifying all FX windows into a single "willing buyer, willing seller" market, aiming to enhance transparency and liquidity. Further solidifying this, the CBN introduced the Nigerian Foreign Exchange (FX) Code in January 2025, establishing clear governance, conduct, disclosure, and risk-management standards for all FX market participants, pursuant to its powers under the CBN Act 2007 and BOFIA 2020. The CBN also lifted restrictions on access to FX for 43 commodities in October 2023 and, in February 2026, re-admitted licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators into the official FX market with updated regulatory guidelines. These measures, coupled with consistent adjustments to the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) throughout 2023-2025, including the introduction of an Inflation Targeting Framework in November 2023, reflect a concerted effort to stabilize the naira and control inflation.

Tax reforms have been equally transformative. The Finance Act 2023 (FA23), though signed by the preceding administration on May 28, 2023, with a retroactive effective date of May 1, 2023, was subsequently varied by President Tinubu's Finance Act (Effective Date Variation) Order, 2023, postponing its commencement to September 1, 2023. FA23 introduced significant amendments, including subjecting digital assets to Capital Gains Tax (CGT), increasing the Tertiary Education Tax (TET) rate to 3%, and imposing a 0.5% import levy on goods from outside Africa. Further, in June 2025, President Tinubu signed four landmark tax reform bills into law, effective January 1, 2026: the Nigeria Tax Act (NTA) 2025, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act (NRSA) 2025, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act (JRBA) 2025. These Acts aim to consolidate fragmented tax laws, streamline administration, and create a more autonomous revenue service, introducing changes such as an increased CGT rate for companies and a new Development Levy.

However, these reforms have not been without legal and administrative scrutiny. The proposed Customs, Excise and Tariff Amendment (CETA) Bill in late 2025/early 2026, for instance, faced strong opposition from the Organised Private Sector (OPS), which warned of potential economic sabotage and misalignment with the broader fiscal reform agenda due to its proposed excise duties on non-alcoholic beverages. While direct court challenges to specific economic policies are less prominent in the available information, the judiciary has engaged with presidential actions, as seen in the Federal High Court's dismissal of a case challenging President Tinubu's declaration of emergency in Rivers State in October 2025, on grounds of locus standi and jurisdictional limits. This indicates the potential for judicial review of executive actions, even if not directly on economic policy substance.

The period from 2023 to 2025 under President Tinubu's administration has been marked by an aggressive and comprehensive legal and regulatory restructuring of Nigeria's economy. Legal practitioners must grapple with the implications of the fuel subsidy removal, the unified foreign exchange market, and the sweeping tax reforms, including the Finance Act 2023 and the impending 2025 Tax Reform Acts. These changes necessitate a thorough understanding of new compliance requirements, altered tax liabilities, and evolving regulatory landscapes, particularly concerning digital assets, import duties, and corporate taxation.

Looking ahead, practitioners should closely monitor the full implementation of the 2025 Tax Reform Acts, which are set to take effect in January 2026, and any further developments regarding the contentious Customs, Excise and Tariff Amendment Bill. The Central Bank of Nigeria's continued efforts to stabilize the FX market and manage inflation through its monetary policy instruments will also remain a critical area of focus. Staying abreast of these dynamic legal and regulatory shifts is paramount for effectively advising clients and navigating the evolving economic environment in Nigeria.